Vagary

TSO - Believe

Derek — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 14:54:45 GMT

Trans-Siberian Orchestra performs Savatage's "Believe".

Peephole in a Barbed Wire Fence

Derek — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 07:46:51 GMT

I'm not sure the origin of this tale, but as my grandfather used to say:

"Peephole in a Barbed Wire Fence"

The famous speaker who no one had heard of said:

Hear ye, hear ye!

Ladies and Gentlemen, Hobos and Tramps,

Cross-eyed mosquitoes and bow-legged ants

I stand before you to sit behind you

To tell you something I know nothing about:

Next Thursday, which is Good Friday

There'll be a Ladies Meeting strictly for men

Free Admission so pay at the door

Pull up a chair and sit on the floor

Now the show is over, but before I go,

Let me tell you a story I don't really know:

One bright day, in the middle of the night

Two dead boys got up to fight.

One was blind and the other couldn't see,

So they used a Mummy for a referee

Back to back; they faced each other;

Pulled out their swords and shot one another.

A deaf policeman heard the noise,

And came and killed the two dead boys.

If you don't believe this lie is true...

Ask the blind man; he saw it too!"

In It to Win It

Derek — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 20:04:32 GMT

When we last saw our heroes they were dangling on a cardboard precipice, contemplating a litany of photos which involved risqué lobster dinners. Oh wait, wrong channel! Last time we took a look the attributes of playoff bound teams here in the City of Kingston softball league (Kingston, NY). We found that since a little more than half of teams qualify for the playoffs, teams simply have to be slightly above average offensively or defensively to be a playoff contender. We also discovered the obvious importance of run differential. But making the playoffs isn’t everything; one team each year will attain the highest reward – the prestige and gratification that comes with being called a champion. I’m sure you’re all teetering on the edge of your seats waiting to find out just what it takes to win the big one.

Conventional logic would say that the better team should win a playoff series, especially in a best-of-three format. However, the team with the better regular season record only won 54% of playoff series. What if we use our “run differential” findings from the previous article? Teams with the better regular season run differential advance at a 60% rate. The table below shows the win percentage for teams that were better in each respective category:

Category	Playoff Series Win %
More Runs For	67%
Less Runs Against	64%
Better Run Differential	60%
More Wins	54%

This info shows us that teams that are far above average on either offense or defense are more successful than teams with a balanced attack. The unbalanced teams likely overwhelm their more balanced opponents. In fact, 87% of teams who won a playoff series were at least 10% above the league average defensively. On average, teams who won a playoff series were 22% above average defensively. That’s a huge number. So in other words, if the league average was 11 runs per game, the average playoff winner only gave up 8.6 runs per game. And some winners were close to 50% above average defensively!

What playoff teams advance at the highest rate? Great offensive teams do well, but the teams that excel are the best defensive teams. If you, like Nigel McGuinness, are “in it to win it”, come armed with a top notch defense or else you may miss your shot at history.

The Birdman of the Hudson Valley

Derek — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 00:24:20 GMT

On Halloween 2008, our team of investigators set out to find the Hudson Valley Birdman.

The following video was recovered while tracking the Birdman of the Hudson Valley.

Patch Road Banshee

Derek — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 11:49:13 GMT

Kiss FM visits Patch Road in Saugerties in search of the Patch Road Banshee...

Playoffs or Bust

Derek — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 20:05:19 GMT

What types of softball teams do well? What does it take to make the playoffs? These are some of the important questions that every organization asks of themselves each year as they try to improve their team and take their shot at history.

Making the playoffs is easy, right? Over the past 5 years in the mens City of Kingston C League (Kingston, NY), 28 of 51 teams have made the playoffs. For the sake of competitive balance, let’s throw out the Lower C results from the past two years. That leaves 39 teams, 20 of which were playoff bound. That’s actually more than half! So in other words, you only need to be average or slightly better to qualify? Wow!

Not quite. No 8-8 team qualified for the playoffs. Even 9 wins isn’t likely to get you there – only one 9 win team has made it in. For both a 16 and an 18 game schedule, 10 wins seems to be the benchmark. All but one team with 10 or more wins made their way to the playoffs.

Ok, so 10 wins is the goal. But HOW do you get there? No team takes the field looking to lose. Statistically, what makes a winning team? As Sweet Tooth Tom Klonowski once said, “If you win the inning, you win the inning. If you win every inning, you win the game.” That’s common sense, but what Sweet Tooth is saying is, all you have to do is outscore your opponent. Is being a high scoring team really all it takes? Let’s see.

runs scored, per game	chance of making playoffs
>1% above league avg	85%
<1% above league avg	16%

The table above pretty clearly shows that you only have to score slightly better than the league average to make the playoffs. 17 of 20 teams in this situation qualified, while only 3 or 19 teams below the mark made it.

How about defense? Does that matter? The old baseball adage is that defense and pitching trump a high powered offense. However, softball has a much higher run environment; typical games aren’t low scoring affairs such as in baseball. Also, softball pitchers aren’t throwing 95 mph heaters and basically have to “lay it in there”. So defense and pitching don’t matter, right?

runs against, per game	chance of making playoffs
below league average	75%
above league average	13%

Wrong again. Good defense is still very much a hallmark of successful teams. 18 of 24 (75%) teams who gave up less runs than the league average made the playoffs.

In fact, run scoring and run prevention are so vital that if you look at all of the teams which were below average in both facets, not even a single one made the playoffs! What about the teams we mentioned earlier – the teams which were below average in one aspect or the other yet still were on top of the league? The low scoring teams compensated by having a remarkably good defense, while the poor defensive teams were offensive juggernauts. The common denominator seems to be run differential. If you rank the teams by run differential, the top 14 teams ALL made the playoffs. Conversely, none of the bottom 16 teams made it in.

run differential, per game	chance of making playoffs
+3 or more	100%
+1 to +3	63%
+1 to 0	33%
less than 0	0%

If you outscore your opponent by an average of 3 or more runs per game, history dictates that you will receive a playoff berth. It’s that simple.

What have we learned? Making the playoffs can be accomplished by scoring a lot of runs OR keeping your opponent from doing so. As long as you are above average in either area you will be successful. Even more important is a team’s run differential. As Sweet Tooth said “It’s a hitter’s game, gentlemen!”, but if you’re not going to score, you’d better make sure the opponent doesn’t either!

Now that we see what it takes to make it, next time we’ll look at what types of teams win once they’re in.

Got Wood?

Derek — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 07:39:17 GMT

For the first time in recorded history (i.e., since the 70’s), the Kingston Softball league used wooden bats for some games this year. Each team was set to play two wood games each. Actually what ended up happening due to a scheduling failure was that some teams had three wood games and some only had one. But anyway, the league (not necessarily the players) has deemed the wooden experiment a success. With 2009 likely to have four wood games per team, I thought it would be prudent to review the statistical differences between the wood and metal bats.

Since league wide stats are not readily available we have to work with what we have access to. Conventional thinking will say that the ball comes off the metal bat faster, so teams should have a higher batting average while using metal in comparison to wood:

Casa Villa	Batting Avg.
Metal bats	0.457
Wood bats	0.469

Their batting average with wood bats should be lower, right? Nope. Not a large difference, but what is going on here?

Slugging percentage is where you can see the difference in the bats:

Casa Villa	Slugging %
Metal bats	0.683
Wood bats	0.575

That’s 18% less bases per at bat, a significant change. So, Casa Villa had more hits but less extra base hits. Extrapolating the data, we find that Casa Villa had 17% more singles with a wood bat, but 21% less doubles, 41% less triples and 78% home runs. 78%! What? And to make things worse, the sole home run they did have with a wood bat was an inside the park home run.

What did we learn here? You just can’t go deep with the wood bats? Well, not quite. The Charlton Precision Jets hit three home runs in their two wood bat games. While that number is well under their metal bat home run percentage, it shows it can still be done. If you combine the stats from both Casa Villa and the Jets, you get the following result:

1B	2B	3B	HR
14% more	13% less	48% less	56% less

It is clear that the wood bats favor singles hitters and punishes home run hitters. So I’m sure you’re wondering what effect less extra base hits had on overall scoring. I’m glad you asked.

C League - runs per team per game	RPG
Metal bats	12.31
Wood bats	9.04

Without as many extra base hits, scoring was down a whopping 27%! Is there anything else that we can learn from the data? How about players who had experience with wood bats (Saugerties modified league, etc)? I broke the players into three categories based on their experience with wood: lots, some and little. The results are quite interesting.

Experience	Wood Avg	Metal Avg	Change	Wood Slg	Metal Slg	Change
Little	0.426	0.465	91%	0.511	0.700	73%
Some	0.471	0.496	95%	0.559	0.767	73%
Lots	0.516	0.477	115%	0.710	0.614	116%

The players who knew how to wield the wooden bat had a distinct advantage over players who were not used to it. They had more hits. They even had more extra base hits. In fact, their slugging percentage was actually higher with wood bats than with metal bats!

What is the conclusion of all of this? When you’re building your 2009 team, fill your roster with more Phil Denises and less Fred Duffuses. And remember – if chicks dig the longball, make sure to leave your wood bat at home, unless you really know how to use it!

Return to C

Derek — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 18:06:29 GMT

Return to C

It’s now been five seasons since the team’s return to C league in 2004, following back to back D league championships in 2002 and 2003. Let’s look at some of the statistics from the 2004-2008 timeframe.

First and foremost, following 2004’s changing of the guard, the team has established 11 consistent contributors. The existing nucleus of Derek Snyder, Scott Liese, Fred Duffus, Mike Goodrich and Ronnie Schmadel was joined by two returning players, Tony Troccia and Kevan Dudek, and four new mainstays – Kevin C. Jones, Phil Denise, Lou Denise and Mike Hunter. Each of these players held a starting role for three or more seasons. This solid core played an integral part in propel the team to playoff appearances in 2005, 2006 and 2007.

Here are the 2004-2008 stats for these 11 players:

PLAYER	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	OBP	SLG	AVG.
Fred Duffus	288	128	166	22	0	64	197	8	3	0.570	1.319	0.576
Kevin C. Jones	238	81	127	14	8	1	65	4	0	0.524	0.672	0.534
Mike Hunter	150	65	79	15	5	5	49	0	0	0.523	0.793	0.527
Derek Snyder	286	108	149	26	7	5	112	14	0	0.524	0.713	0.521
Kevan Dudek	132	39	67	7	1	0	35	9	1	0.528	0.576	0.508
Tony Troccia	231	113	117	10	6	14	71	13	1	0.520	0.784	0.506
Lou Denise	194	82	94	23	9	10	60	9	2	0.500	0.851	0.485
Mike Goodrich	225	72	107	15	0	10	72	10	4	0.481	0.676	0.476
Ronnie Schmadel	274	110	128	26	7	10	88	5	1	0.470	0.723	0.467
Phil Denise	199	61	87	8	2	0	38	4	3	0.440	0.497	0.437
Scott Liese	201	61	66	1	3	0	34	28	5	0.407	0.363	0.328

There's also a 12th player who fits the criteria, but is no longer with the organization.

PLAYER	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	OBP	SLG	AVG.
Charlie Glass	130	66	78	18	10	22	70	3	0	0.591	1.400	0.600

Some quick tidbits:

In those five years, 44 players have played in at least one game
Six players have amasssed 100 or more hits:
- 166 Fred
- 149 Derek
- 128 Ronnie
- 127 Kevin
- 117 Tony
- 107 Mike Goodrich
Charlie Glass has legged out 10 triples, while Fred has batted 305 times without a single one
Fred, Charlie, Tony, Ronnie, Mike Goodrich and Lou have all crushed 10 or more home runs, with Fred’s 64 leading the pack
Fred has driven in 197 runs, 85 more than any other player
Scott Liese has drawn 28 walks, twice as much as anyone else
Charlie’s .600 batting average is tops among everyone
The most games started at any one position was Scott who started 78 games as the pitcher
The team batted .500 at Block but only .455 at the Point
The team batted .518 in May, 30 points higher than any other month
There were six hitting streaks of 15 or more games:
- 29 Charlie
- 29 Fred
- 19 Ronnie
- 18 Dudek
- 18 Ronnie
- 16 Mike Goodrich

Here’s how the teams from this year’s C league performed from 2004-2008:

Team	W	L	Win %	Finals Appearances	League Titles
Angry Dragons	13	4	0.765	1	0
White Eagle	59	24	0.711	4	1
Murphy's	21	13	0.618	2	1
BJ Cannonballs	49	34	0.590	1	1
Copy Baby	9	7	0.563	0	0
Grand Slam	43	39	0.524	1	1
Casa Villa	43	41	0.512	0	0
Riccardi Hideaway	17	19	0.472	0	0
Marbletown	38	45	0.458	0	0
Jets	16	20	0.444	0	0
Mariner's	7	9	0.438	0	0
BBQ	12	53	0.185	0	0
Campers Barn	4	30	0.118	0	0

Vagrant Visits - Black Creek Preserve

Derek — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 18:53:36 GMT

Cheyenne and I headed out for Mohonk to visit Eagle Cliff. Unfortunately, every parking lot in the Mohonk and Minnewaska area was already full! As a backup plan we visited Black Creek Preserve. It was worth the visit.

Black Creek Preserve is located in Esopus, NY. It's 130 acres of quiet and picturesque nature. The trails are well maintained and not extremely lengthy (good for kids). I'd estimate the total trip from the car to the banks of the Hudson was about 1.5 miles maybe? Along the way you pass several old rock walls, which obviously dilenated property lines at some point in the distant past.

Once the Hudson was in sight we hurried down the hill to get a better vantage point. To my surprise, there were pitch pines, albeit only a few! They are awesome! Click the image below to check out the photo gallery (and then come back for the rest of the story).

Cheyenne posed for a few shots near the pitch pines.

Soon thereafter, we discovered a letterboxing park quest box.

Curious and unfamiliar, I opened the box and examined the contents inside. There was a notebook filled with testimonies from previous visitors, a stamp, laminated documents regarding the history of the area and some sort of an acorn device in a smaller box.

Within the notebook there were directions to find other such treats. The websites they listed were www.atlasquest.com and www.geocaching.com.

After resting for a while to take in the scenery, we headed back to the car. I'm attaching a short video of the area for anyone who is interested.

Vagrant Visits - Kaaterskill Falls and Catskill Mountain House

Derek — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 18:40:22 GMT

Cheyenne and I headed out for another visit to Kaaterskill Falls. For those unaware (which for some strange reason seems to be most people), Kaaterskill Falls is the highest waterfall in New York. The falls are a mighty 260 feet in total, broken into two tiers.

In typical Cheyenne fashion, we get no farther than just past the parking lot before she rolls her ankle and falls to the ground, scraping her knee in the process. Thankfully, it was merely a flesh wound.

After avoiding the traffic on 23A we arrive at Bastion Falls. The water is coming over at a decent rate, so I know we're in for a treat when we get to the top. There are quite a few people lurking about, including the usual type who see Bastion Falls and then just leave (I guess they figure that's all there is to see).

We head for Kaaterskill, and the trek is quite easy this time - not so much mud and wetness where slippery footing becomes an issue. Chey also has a far easier time than the previous few years when you'd have to hold her hand or keep an overly watchful eye on her 90% of the journey.

Just before we hit the clearing you can hear the roar of the water coming over the falls. True enough, we break thru are privy to the majestic Kaaterskill Falls. Despite being there several times before, I never get tired of seeing them. The water cascades down from the top tier, launched like it was thrown from buckets. The large pool in-between then overflows into the lower section where the falls are much fuller and traditional.

I'm always amazed to see the number of people present who have never seen the falls. Despite being the tallest in the entire state and only being a half mile hike, the site is one of the areas best kept secrets. We meet two such gentlemen, who have made the journey from Philadelphia and New York City to see the falls. We talk a little about the area and what it has to offer. After taking a few pictures of the two men together (proof for their wives that they were doing something productive on their trip), they offer to snap a few of Chey and I.

Afterwards, we take in the scenery for a while as we usually do. We hop up on one of the large rocks and enjoy the never ending theater the falls present. There are many visitors on this day, some with large "commercial" type cameras - lengthy fancy lenses, tripods, etc. Others frolic near the resulting stream, Kaaterskill Creek.

Eventually, we make our way back down the trail towards the car - we've got another stop to make on this day!

Here are two links - one for a photo gallery and one a video of our hike from Kaaterskill Falls back down to Bastion Falls.

From there, we head to the top of the mountain, thru Haines Falls. The plan is to visit the North South Lake camping area to check out the site of the no-longer-in-existence Catskill Mountain House. I'm excited, as I've read about the Mountain House, but have never been to the site. The Mountain House was built in the early 1800's, and was visited by many prominent figures of our country's past - presidents, dignitaries, and other such figures. Initially, the only way to visit the hotel was via a five hour stagecoach ride up the side of the mountain. Eventually, a railway was built right into the side of the mountain to provide better access.

We pay the $5 day use fee and head to the back side of North Lake, where there is a parking area not far from the site. After some wandering around the Escarpment Trail, we find the proper trail. After a short incline, the trail curves left and you pass through the old gateposts. Not far from there you can start to see the views, even from through the trees. Shortly thereafter, you hit a clearing where you're privy to the sweeping views the hotel's visitors saw many ages ago. You can see the Hudson, and beyond that assumedly Massachusetts and Connecticut. Cars look like ants moving along the roads below. All in all, an amazing sight!

Here are two links, one a photo gallery of the Catskill Mountain House site and North Lake, the other is a short video of the view from the Mountain House site.

That concluded the day's adventures, but I'll leave you with one last fun picture.

The human candy cane:

Golf Challenge at the End of Year Party

Derek — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 08:30:36 GMT

Mike Goodrich's club goes farther than his ball:

Tony Troccia hits the winning shot, amid banter from Big Mike and others:

Mike Goodrich muffs his shot while a theological debate rages about Little Miss Muffet and her tuffet:

Fred Duffus flubs his shot and the follow up:

Scott Liese hits a nice shot:

Mike Hunter goes deep:

Fred Duffus stacks two balls and attempts to hit them both:

2008 End of Year Home Run Derby

Derek — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 20:18:10 GMT

The title says it all - the 2008 End of Year Home Run Derby!

The Derby was held at the Town of Ulster field in Kingston, NY.

A 47 Degree Axis

Derek — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 09:05:15 GMT

Big Poppa Pump Scott Steiner at his nonsensical best.

"That's right Mean Gene, I don't lay down for nobody and whether I leave here the world champion tonight, it don't matter because it's not going to change my focus on getting even with Goldberg for fracturing my face at Fall Brawl. Goldberg! I'm getting even for you fracturing my face and I'm gonna prove to you that I'm the man with the largest arms in the world! I'm the genetic freak and size does matter! And that statement, Mean Gene, comes true whether I'm in the ring or out of the ring. See where all my freaks are horizontal, they understand size, they appreciate size and size does matter and they know that they don't have to wait for the Earth to rotate on a 47 degree axis so the stars can touch the sky and create an equinox so they see the big dipper. No no no, all they gotta do is call the Big Poppa, cause I'm the man with the big dipper and satisfaction's coming when I go behind and do the bump n' grind and it's only a matter of time before they call me the big bad booty daddy! So Goldberg, realize this. I only care about two things in this world: my freaks and my peaks and I'll beat your rear end down at Fall Brawl and I'm about to put you in the Steiner recliner and I'm gonna whisper in your ear, "Size does matter, bitch!"

Would you? (original)

Derek — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 20:29:49 GMT

Classic! The original Would You? commercial on Spike - it was for Star Trek: The Next Generation:

Would you?

Derek — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 07:32:30 GMT

Chris Sabin poses the classic question to Alex Shelley.

1992 Ulster Lightning Softball

Derek — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 22:21:45 GMT

Five videos from the 1992 Ulster Lightning softball team:

1993 Michael's Diner Softball

Derek — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 20:21:49 GMT

Three clips from a 1993 Michael's Diner softball game. The first clip features the classic "Fuck 'em over" call. In the second clip Babe Lake focuses on Derek Snyder, George Resso and Tony Troccia. The third clip is the postgame reaction to the loss.

2008 Hall of Fame Game

Derek — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 05:26:19 GMT

I'll keep this brief to mirror the experience itself. While the Hall of Fame Game itself was a wash, seeing the Padres roll in on the trolley and warm up was exciting.

Heath Bell was the star of the show, he was like a big kid. He snapped pictures whenever possible, of fans, the field, teammates. It was nice to see that some guys still enjoy baseball for what it is, a game.

Other random observations. Greg Maddux is hilarious in that he refuses to sign autographs for adults. Luke Carlin looks to be about 14 years old. Tony Clark is seemingly on stilts. Kevin Towers was wearing the greatest shirt I've ever seen. Paul McAnulty was a seemingly genuine nice guy. He even chuckled when I mentioned the "Jack-Anulty" nickname to him.

Chase Headley generated a lot of excitement when people saw him there with the team.

Trevor Hoffman played catch with his sons for the entire time the Padres were warming up. Here's a short video:

Click the picture below to see some of the pictures I took. Also, you can download the set of pictures here.

There are some things I know and some things I don't

Derek — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 18:21:04 GMT

Quoth John, from Cincinnati

"If my words are yours, can you hear my Father? Can Bill know my Father, keeping his eye on me? Can I bone Kai and Butchie know my Father instead?"

"My Father's shy doing his business. Kai helps my Father dump out. Bill takes a shot. Shaunie is much improved.

"Joe is a Doubting Thomas. Joe will save Not-Aleman. Joe will bring his buddies home. This is how Freddy relaxes. Cup-o'joe, and Winchell's variety dozen.

"Mitch catches a good wave. Mitch wipes out. Mitch wipes out Cissy. Cissy shows Butchie how to do that. Cissy wipes Butchie out. Butchie hurts Barry's head. Mister Rollins comes in Barry's face. My Father runs the Mega-Millions.

"Fur is big. Mud is big. The stick is big. The word is big. Fire is huge. The wheel is huge. The line and circle are big. On the wall, the line and circle are huge. On the wall, the man at the wall makes a man from the circle and line. The man at the wall makes a Word on the wall from the circle and line. The Word on the wall hears my Father.

"The zeroes and ones make the Word in Cass's camera. In the Word on the wall that hears my-Father-in-Cass's-camera, the good one Mitch catches doesn't wipe Cissy out. In the-Word-that-hears-my-Father, Cissy shows Butchie something else. In-my-Father's-Word, Cissy shows Butchie in Shaun. In-my-Father's-Word, Tina raises Shaun at lunch. In Cass's-camera, Butchie lays the court out for Barry, and Mister Rollins watches, and he doesn't come on Barry's face. In Cass's-camera, Butchie knows Kai kept the faith. In-my-Father's-Word, the Wave lifts them up.

"In Cass's camera, Bill doesn't bump his head on the stairs. In Cass's-camera, as long as he's being stupid, Bill gives Lois a kiss.

"In His-Word-in-Cass's-camera, the Internet is big. Nine-Eleven is big, but not every towel-head is eradicated. In His-Word, We are coming Nine-Eleven-Fourteen.

"In my-Father's-Word, Bill sees how Freddy relaxes. In Cass's-camera, Ramon wants to know who's hungry, in the courtyard and Room Forty-Five.

"In my-Father's-Word-to-come-in-Cass's-camera, Doctor Smith calls Ocean Properties. In Cass's-camera-to-come, my Father stares Not Aleman down, and Freddy sees Bill much-improved.

"You will not note my-Father's-Word, nor remember Cass's-camera, but you will not forget what we did here."

Softball Xclusive - Tony Troccia, pts 5 & 6

Derek — Sun, 25 May 2008 20:08:44 GMT

Vagrant Intentions has a Memorial Day present for everyone - two more parts to the epic Tony Troccia interview!

In Part 5, Tony tells the real story of the team split after the 1997 season, how the 1998 Superior Tree was formed and how that team overachieved like no other.

In Part 6, Tony answers some fan questions, talks about Mount Olympus, Bernie Wento, pitching and catching, Partha, The Lord, the Vladich family and more.